WASHINGTON

WHAT WILL FORMER Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s Iowa surge mean on caucus day next week? It’s worth keeping the peculiar dynamics of caucus politics in mind.

First of all, it is almost trite that retail politics still matters disproportionately in any caucus. Those who have built a more powerful organization are better able to turn out supporters on a cold, snowy night for an entire evening of party politics. And it is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney who has adopted a stratagem that Forbes Magazine Publisher Steve Forbes employed in 2000: deploying dozens of paid “super-volunteers” covering the state.

Mr. Romney’s field staff rivals those of Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, each of whom had around 200 paid staff members on the ground at last count. So Romney supporters trying to stem Huckabee’s tide — and, amusingly enough, Huckabee supporters trying to lower expectations — are both insisting that organization dominates the contest.

Granted, it’s also true that Republican caucuses are more straightforward than on the Democratic side: Only one vote is taken with no viability requirements, so GOP caucus results do match polling more closely than their Democratic counterparts. Also, recall that Pat Robertson in 1988 tapped the state’s network of conservative Christians to pass George H.W. Bush in the caucus, though he still fell short of Bob Dole’s powerful Midwestern draw during the Farm Crisis.

Yet ultimately, someone has to turn out supporters, and neighbor-to-neighbor, friend-to-friend, family-to-family contact is still the stuff caucus turnout is made of. So on the organization front, expect Romney to significantly outperform his poll numbers, and Huckabee to significantly underperform his.

Another factor to consider: My recently released study of the caucus estimates that a candidate’s days in Iowa are the single most powerful tactic available. Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George H.W. Bush in 1980 both demonstrated the power of personal candidate contact in driving to caucus wins.

And who has spent the most time in Iowa? The latest estimates I have are that Huckabee had spent about 60 days in the state, to Romney’s 54. Of course, there is time for a well-funded Romney counterattack, or a new attack by former Sen. Fred Thompson. But here again, negative TV campaigning in particular has a spotty history in Iowa. My study hints that candidates who spend too much on television relative to other tactics actually perform worse in Iowa. And because the rigors of caucus politics require enthusiastic committed supporters, violent fusillades tend to ricochet against those who sponsor them far more than in a primary, where turnout remains relatively high regardless of the race’s level of negativity.

Thus in 2004, former Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt launched what was ever-after known as the “murder-suicide pact” with former Vermont Gov. Dean, attacking him directly and provoking a fierce response; and the result was that both went down to defeat.

Likewise, in 1996, Steve Forbes spent nearly double what any other candidate spent on television in his assault on Bob Dole, and finished a debilitating fourth (leading him to turn to paid “volunteers” in 2000).

So an over-aggressive Romney or Thompson TV attack on Huckabee may well backfire. Also, expect the center-right Club for Growth, which Huckabee has provoked by calling it the Club for Greed, to play a role in the attempt to check the Arkansan’s rise since as an independent group, it’s not on the ballot.

Bottom line: Mike Huckabee may be pulling away, but he still has a long way to go before Jan. 3. And perhaps even more important, never take for granted how different Iowa’s caucuses are from standard primary politics.

Christopher C. Hull, the author of Grassroots Rules: How the Iowa Caucus Helps Elect American Presidents, is an adjunct assistant professor in Georgetown University’s Government Department.